Monday, March 14, 2011

Thoughts on the "First Four"

I might be one of the few sports reporters in the country who will actually admit to liking a 68 team field in this year's NCAA basketball tournament.

I like adding in three more first-round play-in games to the mix. It gives opportunities to a few more good teams to make a memorable run in March who might have otherwise been relegated to the NIT. Sure there are some mediocre teams in this year's tournament. But there have been plenty of years where good teams got snubbed. It should add little bit of extra excitement to the whole first weekend.

Here are my thoughts on the "First Four" games on Tuesday and Wednesday:

Best team: USC
It is true the Trojans had a ton of bad losses early in the season. But USC also proved its mettle by beating its share of tough teams in PAC-10 play. The Trojans are catching fire at the right time and could be a darkhorse to claim a Sweet 16 berth.

Worst team: Alabama State
The Hornets needed to win 11 of their last 12 games just to get to .500 in one of the worst conferences in the nation. This is exactly why SWAC teams are a fixture in play-in games.

Predictions -

UAB vs Clemson:
The Tigers pushed North Carolina to the limits in the ACC Tournament. The Blazers had an uninspiring loss to East Carolina in the C-USA Tournament. Clemson has a recent history of early tournament exits. I think the Tigers reverse that trend here.  Clemson 68, UAB 63.

UNC-Asheville vs Ark-Little Rock:
Six straight wins -- including a pair of victories over Coastal Carolina -- helped the Bulldogs reach this point. They won the first play-in game when the field went to 65 teams back in 2003. My guess is they will have enough momentum to beat a Trojans' squad that needed a buzzer-beater to win a bad Sun Belt Conference. UNCA 74, UALR 67.

USC vs VCU:
These are two teams going in opposite directions. Despite a memorable run to the CAA title game, the Rams have lost five of their last eight games. USC has won six of its last eight and owns three victories over top 25 teams this season. I think the Trojans can make some noise with Nikola Vucevic playing at his best. Vucevic, who averages 17.3 points and 10.2 rebounds, is a big factor in USC's late season emergence. USC 82, VCU 76.

UT-San Antonio vs Alabama St.:
The WAC gets a sneak peek of one its new members for the 2012 season. Not sure anyone else will really care about this one. UTSA 73, Alabama St. 59.

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